I’ve spent nearly a lifetime in the rail industry, leading major capital delivery programmes as well as asset and systems integration projects, working across client and supply side.

Experience has taught me that rail owners and operators have to deal with an ever-growing list of important and competing priorities – climate change, ageing assets, affordability of capital works and operations, network-wide digitisation, operational reliability as well as regulatory change – it’s difficult to maintain business as usual let alone find the time and space to take a focused, long-term view on how to future-proof our railways.

Like many across the industry, I want to see high performing, safe and reliable railways that form the backbone of future sustainable transport networks. Achieving this requires our rail networks and infrastructure – many of which were not designed for multiple, once-in-a-lifetime-type extreme weather events, occurring at the frequency that they are today – to proactively prepare and adapt for these increasingly severe and frequent weather events.

The climate change to-do list

Operationally, climate change is clearly becoming a bigger priority every year. In April 2024, Network Rail in the UK announced an investment of £2.8bn into renewal and maintenance activities, (as well as digitisation) to help it better cope with climate change. This was concurrent with the release of the government’s new transport adaptation strategy. This is not unexpected as railways already face a huge toll from extreme weather events caused by climate change – from $7.6bn of restoration work for the New York City subway network that’s still underway 10 years on from Hurricane Sandy, to €2bn of flood damage to railway infrastructure in Germany. The cost of repeated emergency repairs will far outweigh the upfront costs to prepare.

Of course, the costs of climate damage aren’t simply economic. There is a very real risk to people’s safety and the wider, ongoing social barriers that can follow a break in vital connections between communities.

So, we all understand and recognise that the risks are real and growing – the harder part is working out how to prioritise and implement resilience. As economists are fond of saying, we need to reinforce the roof while the sun is still shining. For, while there are many positive rail resilience initiatives underway globally, at Arup, we believe there is a more effective and efficient way to future-proof railways in the face of climate change.

Connecting the dots within and outside of an organisation

For railways to be resilient, any rail service should be able to safely continue or quickly bounce back from any shock or stress to the system. This means minimal impact on services and ideally minimal physical damage to infrastructure, assets, corridors and surrounding land. Ideally, during any disruption, other parts of the transport network would step in where this is possible, or live network-wide data would ensure real-time communications are received by the workforce, passengers and other key stakeholders to enable everyone to make safe and the most convenient travel/work choices during periods of disruption.

As many in the sector already know, achieving this level of responsiveness and flexibility will require deft and detailed planning and investment, across many dimensions of rail networks and services. Given the size and extent of rail networks and their interfaces, this also isn’t a goal that can be attempted by any single entity alone – or by focusing on piecemeal interventions. Resilience planning needs to move away from what has largely been asset-based interventions, towards a whole-system response, working collaboratively with many stakeholders. This means connecting the dots within an organisation so that individual teams tasked with related but different parts of the resilience equation are complementing similar streams of work, while also bringing in other key stakeholders - from utilities (energy, water) and other transport providers to passengers, businesses and communities along the route. 

Resilience planning needs to move away from what has largely been asset-based interventions, towards a whole-system response, working collaboratively with many stakeholders. 

At Arup, we use our Rail Resilience Framework to look at this through three key dimensions: the organisational leadership and strategy requirements, which transcend any one particular entity; the assets, operations and ecosystems lens; and finally, the wider economic and societal context. In reality, resilience delivers benefits from losses avoided, social and economic opportunities that come off back of a dependable network continue to be supported, and the social, economic and environmental benefits are planned into the resilience measures. These benefits can only be realised if all three dimensions in the framework are addressed.

Resilience: it’s organisational, technological but also cultural

Train at a station with passengers on the platform
Publication
Rail Resilience Framework

Importantly a whole-system approach can foster an environment for shared responsibility with resilience focused actions across multiple organisations supporting each other to strengthen the overall response. It can also lead to shared investment by multiple organisations with the same interests and better use of investment where duplication of money and resources are minimised. It’s about having the right people as part of the decision-making process so any major investment is being thought through properly at the outset, avoiding additional unnecessary investment further down the line to rectify something that was missed. It’s also as much about having the systems, processes and contingency plans in place to minimise disruption as it is about building greater trust with passengers and surrounding communities.

Greater time horizons

So, what do we need to overcome, to prioritise resilience more significantly? The one- to five-year planning cycles for railways can unfortunately be a hindrance to some of the more impactful whole-system outcomes, which in turn are likely to generate better whole-life return. For example, with more systemic foresight and modelling looking at operations and maintenance 10, 20, 30 years from now, it’s likely that different investment and prioritisation decisions could be made that better link with asset renewal cycles, major enhancement programmes and policy-led changes to the transport network or operations. It can also support better decision-making about which technologies to invest in and how to implement across the network given the critical role real-time data and predictive analytics have before, during and after a disruption.

To see the gaps, identify the priorities and then implement a sequence of tangible ‘whole-system’ actions over a number of years, you first need a clear picture of where different parts of the business are at today – and define a vision for the resilience you want to achieve. This will help to improve safety and operations in the short term, while making the best use of OPEX and CAPEX investment in shorter- to longer-term. Achieving this means having the confidence and courage now, to work with a wider group of stakeholders outside of the standard planning cycles. It means getting buy-in from investors and key decision-makers who can already see the damage climate change is causing, and the need to have a stronger, more responsive plan for the future of the network and its assets. 

Strengthening rail resilience for safe, reliable railways

The good news is that the tools, skills and people we need to build resilient rail systems already exist. The challenge is joining it all up and agreeing collective action. Proactive resilience and adaptation planning now, collaboratively, to make infrastructure and systems resilient and adaptive to change will be the most cost-effective and most responsible way forward. We can support rail organisations on this journey, helping to bring together key stakeholders to define a shared resilience vision, backed by a set of priorities and actions, and a deliverable multi-agency plan, that is not only better for business but crucial for a safe and functioning communities that global railways serve.